42 minutes ago
Democrat South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg VS Incumbent Republican President Donald Trump. Buttigieg has been surging in the polls recently, bringing him to my attention.
Safe States for Buttigieg: every state or district in DARK BLUE
Safe States for Trump: every state or district in DARK RED
Likely States for Buttigieg: New Mexico and Colorado. Both of these sun belt states have been trending blue in recent elections, leading me to characterize them as likely Democrat. Virginia has also been trending blue. It has gone from a safe red state 15 years ago to a likely blue state today. Minnesota was won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 by around 1.7%. Buttigieg is not Clinton. I see a 6-7% win for Mayor Pete. Maine at Large will go to Buttigieg by a likely margin as well.
Likely States for Trump- Texas. I don’t see Buttigieg winning Texas, or even making it close. He’s not the candidate. Trump won’t let him. Indiana, Mayor Pete’s home state, is a pretty solid red state. I could see Buttigieg pushing it into the likely column, but still a Trump win.
Lean States for Buttigieg: Nevada has been trending blue. HC won it in 2016, and shifting demographics will make it even more blue in 2020, so Buttigieg will win it by 4-5%. New Hampshire is a swing state, but due to the Presidents’ approval there, at -18, I see it going to Buttigieg by 3-4%. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. Pete Buttigieg is from the Midwest. Trump needs to worry about these states. They don’t like him.
Lean States for Trump: Arizona. Trending a bit blue, electing a Democratic Senator in 2018. Still, I see a 1-2% win for Trump. Georgia. Trending a bit more blue, but still, 3-4% for Trump. North Carolina. Shifting blue, but still, 1-3% for Trump. Maine and Nebraska’s second districts will go to Trump by lean margins. iOS and Ohio will go to Trump NARROWLY, probably by 1-2% margins.
Tilt States for Buttigieg: NONE
Tilt States for Trump: Florida. In a year which was supposed to be a “blue wave”, the GOP still managed to unseat an Incumbent Democratic Senator and Claim the Governorship. Florida will go to Trump narrowly. It’s trending more red. The final count is 278-260. What are your thoughts?